Expanding HK talent schemes drove life insurance agent numbers up 9% by December 2025.

Insurers in Hong Kong and mainland China are expected to post stronger earnings, rising agent numbers and improving new business value, CGS International said.

The sector’s top picks in Hong Kong are AIA and Prudential. AIA is expected to report strong fourth-quarter 2025 results after beating the Bloomberg consensus in the third quarter.

Prudential is favoured for its total capital management yields. In mainland China, China Life and Ping An are the preferred names.

CGS International expects upward revisions to their fiscal year 2025 (FY 2025) to 2027 (FY 2027) net profit and new business value (NBV) forecasts.

China Life is also expected to issue a positive profit alert in January 2026. Current estimates are around 15% above Bloomberg consensus for China Life’s FY 2025 net profit.

Agent numbers in Hong Kong’s life insurance industry rose 9% year-on-year in December 2025, reaching a 5.5-year high.

The growth is attributed to expanded talent schemes in Hong Kong and strong demand from mainland Chinese customers seeking offshore wealth diversification.

Insurers have also reported rapid growth inm Dollar Round Table agents since the reopening of the Hong Kong-mainland China border, suggesting higher productivity amongst agents serving mainland clients.

Recent tighter regulations on brokers are also seen as supportive of the agency channel.

Hong Kong insurers are viewed as well-positioned to tap rising foreign currency deposits in mainland China, which have increased 23% since June 2024. A steeper US yield curve could make US dollar-denominated insurance policies more attractive compared with US dollar time deposits.

Analysts believe Bloomberg consensus forecasts for FY 2025 to FY26 NBV remain too low, partly due to underestimating the impact of policy rate cuts in late August 2025 on NBV margins.

The sector remains rated Overweight, supported by expected double-digit NBV growth from FY 2025 to FY 2027 and ongoing capital management initiatives.

However, risks include tighter regulation, a shift of savings towards equities and wealth management products, and potential challenges in sustaining agent growth.