The capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro by US forces in early January 2026 has thrust the oil-dependent nation back into the spotlight for insurers, investors and risk managers alike.

On January 3, US forces conducted a targeted operation in Caracas that resulted in the removal of Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, to face drug- and weapons-related charges in New York.

The operation, framed by Washington as part of a campaign against drug trafficking, included air strikes and strategic military actions that have since escalated tensions with global partners.

According to Srdjan Todorovic (pictured), global head of political violence and hostile environment solutions at Allianz Commercial, the destabilizing events in Venezuela illustrate broader trends in global political risk that are reshaping underwriting and risk strategy worldwide.

While Todorovic characterized the intervention as “surgical” and unlikely to trigger immediate regime change, he said its broader implications extend far beyond Venezuela itself.

Political violence trends accelerate into 2026

In the wake of the event, multinational businesses and brokers are re-evaluating exposure to political violence, asset risk and systemic instability in the Western Hemisphere. Todorovic pointed to a renewed rise in inter- and intra-state conflict, from localized unrest in smaller economies to the possibility of large-scale clashes between global powers.

“For us as underwriters, the real concern is the increasing prevalence of political violence,” he said. “Clients, brokers and industry experts are all aligned in their view that this risk is accelerating again.”

The US military intervention has already sent ripples through energy markets and investor sentiment. Oil stocks rallied following the news, driven by expectations of future production shifts and potential US involvement in revitalizing Venezuela’s vast reserves.

Todorovic does not expect the latest developments to materially change the risk landscape for most international businesses operating there. Venezuala has long been heavily sanctioned, with widespread expropriations and nationalizations limiting multinational exposure, he pointed out.

However, he warned that the signal sent by US foreign policy is reverberating across Latin America. Countries such as Panama and Colombia are now being viewed differently by underwriters, particularly in terms of how they may be affected by potential US intervention or shifting geopolitical alignment.

“In South America, I expect to see a degree of policy ‘Americanization’ in the short to medium term,” Todorovic said, noting that neighboring states are closely watching how Venezuela responds.

SRCC (strikes, riot and civil commotion) risks extend beyond the US’s “backyard”

While Latin America is firmly in focus, Todorovic stressed that the implications of US foreign policy do not stop at the region’s borders. If Washington concentrates heavily on its immediate sphere of influence, other global flashpoints could escalate.

He pointed to the uncertainty surrounding NATO commitments and President Donald Trump's rhetoric, suggesting that questions about alliance structures could embolden adversarial states elsewhere.

“If deterrence weakens, you could see Russia exert pressure in Eastern Europe, potentially in the Baltics, Moldova or even Poland,” he said. “It feels like the biggest chessboard you’ve ever seen, with multiple games happening at the same time.”

Misinformation remains a top business risk

Amid the undercurrent of global conflicts, technology-driven misinformation remains a grave and potentially costly risk. Allianz Commercial has flagged disinformation and misinformation as one of the top global risks in recent years. In conflict zones, false or misattributed videos can inflame tensions, misdirect public reaction and accelerate unrest.

According to Todorovic, recent surveys among clients show misinformation remains a persistent concern. For politcal risk insurers, he said, artificial intelligence (AI) is an accelerator and creates new challenges in loss causation, claims validation and policy interpretation.

“Misinformation existed long before AI,” he said. “AI accelerates it and makes it look more realistic, but ultimately it’s people driving false narratives.”