QBE Insurance Group has handed brokers and the broader insurance market a reassuring signal on the state of the global cycle, telling shareholders at its Sydney AGM today that first-quarter premium growth, underwriting discipline and investment returns are all tracking to plan despite Middle East conflict losses and a busy catastrophe season across Australia and the Northern Hemisphere.

For brokers, the update confirms rates are still rising in most lines and points to where competition is biting hardest – commercial property and Lloyd's – and it shows one of the world's most broker-dependent insurers is comfortably absorbing catastrophe and war-related claims without straining its full-year outlook. With renewals across the middle of the year now in negotiation, QBE's read on market conditions provides a useful temperature check on capacity, pricing and appetite. Group CEO Andrew Horton (pictured) used the address to underline the durability of the result.

"Our underwriting performance has been excellent, notwithstanding the growing geopolitical instability across the world," he said. Horton added that the insurer entered 2026 "with momentum, a strong balance sheet and a clear strategy, and looking ahead, the outlook remains constructive."

Premium growth holds, but property and Lloyd's tell a different story

Headline gross written premium (GWP) growth of 11% for the first quarter – 7% on a constant currency basis – will reassure brokers that QBE remains in growth mode, particularly in the lines where it has been actively rebuilding share. Ex-rate growth of 6% was driven by momentum in North America Crop and several portfolios within the International division, although stripping out Crop and exited lines leaves underlying ex-rate growth at a more modest 2%, with Accident and Health volumes notably softer at first-quarter renewals.

The pricing picture is more nuanced than the top-line number suggests. Group premium rate increases of around 2% in the first quarter were in line with QBE's expectations, but that average masks meaningful variation across the portfolio. Competitive pressures are most pronounced in commercial property and at Lloyd's, where new capacity and softening conditions have been widely flagged across the market. Excluding those two segments, QBE said rate increases are running at around 4% – consistent with 2025 levels and a clear signal that discipline is holding in casualty, specialty and the bulk of its global commercial book.

For brokers placing risk into Lloyd's syndicates or competing in commercial property, the message is that buyers should expect continued pressure on rate. Outside those segments, QBE's data suggests carriers are still pushing for measured increases, supported by what the insurer described as "favourable rate adequacy across our well diversified global portfolio."

Catastrophe load light, Middle East exposure contained

The most striking number for underwriters and reinsurance buyers is the catastrophe figure. In the four months to April 2026, net catastrophe claims totalled approximately US$300 million, sitting comfortably below QBE's first-half allowance of US$517 million. Recent natural catastrophe activity has been driven by multiple events in Australia, alongside a series of storms in the Northern Hemisphere – a meaningful event load that the insurer has nonetheless absorbed within budget.

Critically for brokers placing political violence, war and marine cargo risk, QBE confirmed that direct underwriting impacts from the conflict in the Middle East have not been material to date, with net claims estimated at around US$60 million and already captured within the US$300 million catastrophe total. The insurer said exposure to the region is generally limited and its teams remain engaged in monitoring and mitigation as the situation evolves.

That outcome is important context for the wider market, where war and terrorism wordings, marine war exclusions and political violence pricing have been under intense scrutiny since hostilities escalated. QBE's contained loss position suggests that, at least for one of the larger global carriers, the immediate underwriting hit has been manageable.

Investment income and capital position back the story

Investment performance has held up through what Horton described as a volatile start to the year. Total investment income for the four months to April came in at around US$500 million, supported by an increase in the core fixed income yield to 4.1% at the end of the first quarter, up from 3.7% at full-year 2025. Total funds under management rose to US$36.1 billion from US$35.8 billion, with risk assets accounting for 15% of the portfolio and asset-liability management activity broadly neutral over the quarter.

The investment result – tempered initially by market weakness around the outbreak of Middle East conflict before a meaningful recovery through April – combined with the underwriting performance to support QBE's decision to reiterate full-year guidance of mid-single-digit GWP growth and a group combined operating ratio of around 92.5% for 2026.

Backing the result is QBE's recently completed A$450 million on-market buyback, which lifted total shareholder distributions for 2025 to around 65% of profit, alongside last year's S&P and Fitch rating upgrades to AA-.

For brokers, the results indicate QBE's pricing discipline is holding outside commercial property and Lloyd's. The giant insurer also has the balance sheet and appetite to keep growing in the lines it wants.