The Iran war will push more than 15,000 additional companies into insolvency worldwide over the next two years, with Asia absorbing more than half the hit, Allianz Trade has warned in a sharp upgrade to its Middle East risk outlook.

The trade credit insurer now sees global business failures rising 6% in 2026, a fifth straight annual increase, before plateauing at elevated levels in 2027. On its own reckoning, the conflict adds 7,000 cases next year and a further 7,900 in 2027 above what the insurer had assumed pre-crisis.

The numbers mark a pointed revision from Allianz Trade's October 2025 outlook, which had forecast a 5% rise in 2026 and a 1% dip the following year. Even then, the insurer had counted 327 major insolvencies in the first nine months of 2025, or one every 20 hours, and flagged that 2026 would run 24% above pre-pandemic norms.

The revised forecast captures the fallout from the US–Israel military campaign launched against Iran on 28 February, which drew Iranian missile retaliation across the Gulf and shut the Strait of Hormuz before Pakistan brokered a two-week ceasefire on 8 April.

US President Donald Trump extended the truce indefinitely on April 22, though reported Iranian strikes on three vessels in the Strait the same day have kept markets twitchy.

Energy prices, shipping costs and supply chains have all whipsawed since, feeding into inflation, credit conditions and business confidence. The Strait carries around a fifth of global oil consumption and roughly 20% of liquefied natural gas trade, figures cited by the US Energy Information Administration, which explains why the chokepoint's closure has rippled so far beyond the region.

"This situation is driving up costs across global value chains, from agrifood to manufacturing, healthcare and technology," said Aylin Somersan Coqui (pictured above), chief executive of Allianz Trade. Companies with thin margins, weak pricing power or heavy debt loads are the most exposed.

Asia bears the brunt

Asia will account for 54% of the global increase, with regional insolvencies projected to climb 7% in 2026 and 3% in 2027. China is pencilled in for 9% and 5% rises as property and consumer sectors continue to drag.

Taiwan faces the sharpest jump in the Asia Pacific at 14% in 2026. Hong Kong and Singapore are the outliers, set to reverse recent upward trends: Hong Kong is forecast to fall 2% in 2026 and 10% in 2027, while Singapore is seen declining 3% and 5%.

A prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz would lift the global insolvency tally by a further 10% in 2026 and 3% in 2027, compounded by commodity shortages and flagging confidence.

"A sustained and widespread escalation would see global insolvencies increase by +10% in 2026 and +3% in 2027," said Maxime Lemerle, lead analyst for insolvency research at Allianz Trade. That scenario would add roughly 4,100 US cases and 10,500 in Western Europe.

The baseline 6% rise in 2026 alone puts 2.2 million jobs directly at risk, 94,000 more than in 2025, with construction, retail and services most exposed.