Global commercial insurance rates dropped 5% in the first quarter of 2026, the seventh consecutive quarter of declines, as insurers competed harder for business against a backdrop of abundant capacity, according to the latest Global Insurance Market Index from Marsh.

The fall, steeper than the 4% decline in the previous quarter, suggests the unwinding of one of the hardest insurance rates cycles in a generation is gathering pace. Pricing across commercial insurance lines began moderating in 2021 after peaking at a 22% increase in late 2020.

Every region tracked by Marsh posted year-on-year decreases. The Pacific led with a 12% drop, followed by India, the Middle East and Africa at 10%. Latin America and the Caribbean and the UK each fell 8%, Canada 6%, and Europe and Asia 5% apiece. The US, weighed down by casualty claims, edged down just 1%.

The pace of decline has roughly doubled across much of the world in a year. Twelve months earlier, the Pacific was down 8%, the UK 6%, IMEA 4%, and Europe barely 1%.

Competition has been particularly fierce in IMEA, where Marsh has previously noted that regional and multinational reinsurers expanded their footprint, driving directors and officers liability rates in the UAE and Saudi Arabia down by 15% to 20% in earlier quarters.

Casualty bucks the trend

Property rates fell 9% globally, matching the previous quarter, with five regions recording double-digit declines led by the Pacific at 14%.

Casualty was the outlier, rising 3% globally on the back of a 9% increase in the US, the second consecutive quarter at that level. Marsh executives told investors on the group's Q1 earnings call that US excess casualty rates jumped 18% in the quarter, pointing to sustained pressure from claims severity that the headline figure obscures.

Financial and professional lines fell 5%, and cyber rates dropped 5%, with IMEA leading cyber declines at 14%.

Insurance cycles have traditionally swung on a five-to-seven-year basis, though analysts at consultancy Oxbow Partners have argued that the persistent availability of capital is flattening and lengthening modern cycles, a view that helps explain the gradual pace of the current soft market.

John Donnelly (pictured above), president of global placement at Marsh Risk, said the Middle East conflict was being monitored for potential market effects, but competitive conditions were likely to persist as insurer profitability remained strong.

This was "especially true in lines such as property, which is supported by favorable reinsurance terms and significant capacity," he said.

Amid economic uncertainty and inflation, Donnelly added, clients had room to refine program structures, raise limits or adjust retentions to bolster resilience in the year ahead.