The business operating environment in 2026 is shaping up to be defined by elevated catastrophe losses, persistent geopolitical uncertainty and accelerating adoption of artificial intelligence.

According to Ivan Gonzalez (pictured), CEO of Swiss Re Corporate Solutions, these forces are not temporary disruptions but structural shifts that will continue to reshape risk management, underwriting and insurer-broker partnerships in the year ahead.

Gonzalez said expectations for 2026 are being set against a backdrop of a more volatile, less predictable world.

Climate-related events remain a core concern for large corporate clients as industry catastrophe losses have trended well above historical norms in recent years, with annual totals increasingly clustering closer to US$150 billion rather than the US$100 billion level that once defined a “bad” year.

“The risk landscape continues to be pretty elevated,” he said. “You no longer need a major Category 4 or 5 hurricane in the US to drive industry losses higher.”

Gonzalez expects that higher baseline of volatility to persist this year, driven not only by natural catastrophes but also by a steady flow of man-made losses.

Navigating the 2026 landscape: Trade, geopolitics and scenario planning

Carried over from 2025, economic uncertainty is an enduring feature of the 2026 outlook. While there is greater clarity around tariffs and trade policy than earlier in the cycle, Gonzalez noted the experience has left a lasting mark on corporate risk strategies.

“The unexpected nature of policy changes has created a lingering feeling that something else could happen,” he said.

As a result, multinational companies are placing greater emphasis on scenario planning, stress-testing their operations against multiple geopolitical and economic outcomes.

This shift is changing the way insurers support clients. Rather than reacting only after shocks occur, Gonzalez said there is growing demand for more holistic risk management approaches that integrate insurance, analytics and forward-looking planning.

AI as a defining force in 2026

Technology, and artificial intelligence in particular, is set to be one of the most consequential forces shaping commercial insurance in 2026. According to Gonzalez, the industry is approaching an inflection point after decades of relatively unchanged operating models.

“There are still many things about the insurance ecosystem that are somewhat similar to 30 years ago. I think that is going to change dramatically with AI, and the industry will definitely transform,” the CEO said.

In 2026, Gonzalez expects the biggest gains to come from generative AI applications embedded across end-to-end workflows. In underwriting, this means faster submission handling, fewer system touchpoints and materially improved productivity. Brokers and clients should increasingly feel these benefits through quicker turnaround times and more consistent decision-making.

As part of the wider Swiss Re group, Corporate Solutions is positioning itself to move faster than many peers.

“We believe that we have a unique data and tech foundation… that gives us the ability to leverage data and tech and ultimately adopt AI in a much faster way,” Gonzalez told Insurance Business.

“We already have some businesses that have adopted it, particularly around operations and claims, where we increasingly see efficiencies coming from a productivity standpoint. But I think the real game changer is more on the generative AI side, where we start to see, across the end-to-end of our operation, ways to leverage AI in unique ways.”

Commercial insurance growth in 2026

Swiss Re is forecasting slower overall premium growth for the global insurance market in 2026, reflecting modest economic expansion across major economies.

Commercial insurance growth is expected to broadly track those trends, but Gonzalez believes certain segments will outperform the wider economy. “We see continued demand driven by technology, climate change and geopolitical developments,” he said.

Property insurance remains the most consistent growth driver. Rising asset values, expanding insured footprints and continued exposure accumulation mean demand for property capacity is unlikely to ease, regardless of where the pricing cycle moves in 2026.

Energy is another focal point, particularly as investment accelerates around the energy transition. Gonzalez pointed to sustained demand for insurance solutions supporting renewables, data centers and the infrastructure required to meet surging power needs.

Credit and surety are also expected to see continued demand, while cyber insurance – despite being in what Gonzalez described as the “softest cycle at the moment” – is likely to benefit from increasing penetration as awareness of digital risk continues to expand.

Beyond traditional lines, Gonzalez highlighted a secular shift toward alternative risk transfer. Captives, parametric solutions, and insurance-linked securities, such as catastrophe bonds, are attracting growing interest from large corporates seeking more flexible and tailored approaches to risk financing.

Strategic priorities and broker partnerships

Swiss Re’s refreshed group strategy, which targets US$4.5 billion in income by 2026, is oriented around what Gonzalez described as a “built to lead” philosophy. For Corporate Solutions, that translates into a continued focus on lead positions rather than commoditized follow capacity, particularly in multinational programs and specialty segments where scale and expertise matter.

Looking ahead, Gonzalez emphasized stability as a key differentiator in a market where some carriers are reassessing appetite or exiting lines altogether. Swiss Re Corporate Solutions, he said, is not planning market exits or broad capacity reductions and intends to manage the cycle while maintaining a consistent presence.

“You have probably seen a number of carriers announcing either exits or a revision of decisions to reduce certain businesses or enter into renewal rights deals with other companies simply because they did not manage to run the business in a resilient way,” Gonzalez said.

“We want to be very clear that clients can count on us not only today or tomorrow, but in 10 years, or in 20 years, or in 50 years.”