Average Mainland arrivals rose 20% to 3.7 million in Q1 2026.

Hong Kong’s insurance and tourism sectors has seen a recovery, with rising visitor numbers expected to support cross-border life insurance sales, particularly to Mainland Chinese visitors (MCVs).

According to Jefferies’ data tracker, which monitors daily immigration flows and monthly tourism figures alongside market data from the Hong Kong Insurance Authority (HKIA), points to improving momentum in visitor arrivals.

Monthly arrivals exceeded five million for the first time since 2019 in August last year, with the level reached again in February 2026.

Based on provisional data, average monthly arrivals in the first quarter of 2026 stood at 4.8 million, up 17% from 4.1 million a year earlier.

Mainland Chinese visitors continue to drive the recovery, with average monthly arrivals reaching 3.7 million in the first quarter of 2026, a 20% increase from 3.1 million in the same period in 2025.

Jefferies noted that whilst insurance and wealth products are sold to a broader regional base, demand is largely concentrated amongst MCVs and local residents.

Despite the rebound, Jefferies said global expectations for Hong Kong remain subdued.

Based on recent visits to Hong Kong, the United States and Europe, the firm observed a gap between investor sentiment overseas and on the ground.

International investors remain cautious, whilst local market participants are more positive, citing strong sales opportunities and increased activity across the city.

Sales momentum in the insurance sector is expected to continue into 2026.

Data from the HKIA for the fourth quarter of 2025 showed a 33% year-on-year increase in new business premiums.

Although this marked a slower pace compared to earlier quarters, where growth ranged from 43% to 69%, Jefferies said the moderation likely reflects seasonal trends, as bancassurance and broker channels typically report stronger sales earlier in the year.

The firm added that early indicators and recent observations suggest a strong first quarter for 2026.

In terms of competition, Jefferies highlighted a shift towards bancassurance on an annual basis.

Growth in early 2025 was driven largely by banks and brokers, whilst agency channels were more prominent in the fourth quarter. As a result, AIA Group regained market leadership in the fourth quarter, consistent with its position in most previous years.