The latest Allianz Risk Barometer analysis of more than 3,000 respondents worldwide found that 51% identify a global supply chain paralysis caused by geopolitical conflict as the most plausible “black swan” scenario that could impact their company over the next five years.

A global internet outage ranks second, cited by 47% of respondents, underlining how cyber and tech risks have become central to business resilience planning.

These fears come against a backdrop of recent crises that appeared obvious only in hindsight. The 9/11 terrorist attacks, the 2008 global financial crisis and the COVID‑19 pandemic all delivered deep economic and insurance losses. Allianz Research estimates that the pandemic alone wiped out around US$12 trillion in global GDP between 2020 and 2023, on top of the significant insured and uninsured losses that accumulated across life, health, property and liability lines.

Asia-Pacific split between physical and digital shocks

Asian respondents closely mirror the global picture. In Asia‑Pacific, a geopolitics‑driven supply chain paralysis and a global internet outage are also seen as the two most plausible black swan scenarios. Supply chain paralysis ranks first in China and Hong Kong, Singapore and South Korea, economies tightly integrated into global manufacturing and technology value chains.

A global internet outage is seen as the top scenario in Australia, India, Japan, Malaysia and Thailand, reflecting the growing weight of digital services, cloud infrastructure and remote working in those markets, according to the analysis.

Boards urged to treat scenarios as real stress tests

Allianz Commercial CEO Thomas Lillelund (pictured) said boards need to treat such scenarios as realistic stress tests rather than theoretical tail risks.

“Although Black Swan events are not seen to be immediately likely, these rare, high‑impact scenarios are perceived as increasingly plausible and should be considered by executive boards given their potential consequences. Growing interconnectivity across both physical and digital supply chains means disruptions now cascade much faster and can turn into major losses," Lillelund said. “In today’s fragmented geopolitical environment, companies must double down on resilience and integrated risk management to ride out the next perfect storm.”

Geopolitics and financial shocks as key triggers

Geopolitics is a clear driver of these concerns. The threat of tariffs, trade wars and protectionism, together with disruption linked to conflicts such as Russia–Ukraine and tensions in the Middle East, has brought supply chain fragility to the forefront for insurers and risk managers. Allianz Research estimated that cumulative GDP losses over a two‑year horizon triggered by a global supply chain disruption on the scale of the war in Ukraine could total around US$1.5 trillion.

Political factors more broadly stand out as leading potential triggers for black swans. Mass social unrest and political instability are regarded as the fourth most plausible scenario globally (29%), and appear among the top three risks in the Americas and Africa and the Middle East, as well as in markets such as France. A sudden collapse of a major financial institution or a sovereign debt crisis, leading to a global liquidity crunch and severe market volatility, ranks third (30%), reviving memories of 2008 for financial lines underwriters.

Company size shapes perception and preparedness

Company size also shapes perception, as well as preparedness. Global supply chain paralysis sits top for both large companies (annual revenue above US$500 million, 55% of responses) and mid‑sized firms (US$100 million to US$500 million, 52%). Smaller companies, with annual revenue below US$100 million, are most concerned about a global internet outage (45%), which remains the second‑ranked scenario for larger and mid‑sized businesses.

For mid‑sized and smaller firms, the sudden collapse of a major financial institution is the third most plausible black swan, while larger corporates are more focused on the risk of a simultaneous climate disaster and energy grid failure, the analysis said.

Implications for insurers and brokers

“Awareness of Black Swans and the need to build resilience has increased in recent years, but businesses can never fully prepare for rare high impact events such as a global outage or an unforeseen climate‑related catastrophe,” said Michael Bruch, global head of risk consulting advisory services at Allianz Commercial. “Building organizational agility, fostering a risk‑aware culture and developing scalable response plans for a range of scenarios remain the most practical steps to best prepare for Black Swan events. Insurers can play a critical role in helping businesses strengthen their resilience in areas such as cyber risk and support more informed decisions when assessing and selecting critical suppliers.”

The findings reinforce the need to interrogate accumulation, clarify coverage for systemic events – particularly cyber and non‑damage business interruption – and expand risk consulting support as black swan scenarios move closer to the center of clients’ risk planning.